Bitcoin price may still drop 40% after FTX ‘Lehman moment’ — Analysis


Bitcoin (BTC) noticed a recent rejection at $17,000 on Nov. 18 as nervous markets weathered extra FTX fallout.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Supply: TradingView

BTC will get a $12,000 value goal

Information from Cointelegraph Markets Professional and TradingView confirmed BTC/USD failing to flip $17,000 to help — a development in place for nearly every week.

The pair, like main altcoins, remained firmly tied down by chilly toes over the FTX debacle and its knock-on results for varied crypto companies.

For analysts, the outlook remained simply as grim, with already dismal forecasts worsening in mild of current occasions.

“This underperformance of all crypto property is right here to remain till the majority of uncertainly has cleared up — possible solely close to the flip of the brand new yr,” buying and selling agency QCP Capital wrote in its newest round to Telegram channel subscribers on the day.

In an intensive market abstract, QCP wrote that its value forecasts for each Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) now needed to drop to mirror the affect of FTX.

Updating a prognosis based mostly on Elliott Wave idea from June, it confirmed BTC/USD now had a goal of $12,000 and ETH/USD $800.

“As a side-note, crypto markets have been buying and selling akin to commodities ever because the 2017 high — with prolonged Wave 5s because the longest wave,” the submit added.

“Therefore such potential value motion with new lows into the brand new yr could be attribute of earlier bear market sell-offs.”

An accompanying chart highlighted the divergence between crypto and shares in November, with t correlation between them firmly shaken due to crypto’s underperformance.

BTC/USD vs. ETH/USD vs. S&P 500 chart. Supply: QCP Capital

Fashionable dealer and analyst Cantering Clark, in the meantime, famous that if the present bear market in danger property had been to repeat the worldwide monetary disaster, heavy losses had been nonetheless to come back.

“The Lehman chapter was the climax of the 2008 monetary disaster. It was backside materials qualitatively, however the market paused after which dedicated to 40% decrease,” a part of a tweet learn.

“By no means say by no means, and don’t let your guard down.”

S&P 500 annotated chart. Supply: Cantering Clark/Twitter

As Cointelegraph reported, $13,500 has additionally develop into a preferred draw back goal.

Crypto pie “being reduce massively”

Persevering with, QCP additionally voiced issues over declining volumes and open curiosity (OI) throughout each centralized (CEXs) and decentralized (DEXs) exchanges.

Associated: US crypto exchanges lead Bitcoin exodus: Over $1.5B in BTC withdrawn in a single week

“Thus far, CEX spinoff change volumes have been most affected. Mixed futures OI is now again to pre-2021 ranges, a large backward step for the trade,” it wrote.

Bitcoin futures open curiosity chart. Supply: QCP Capital

On the subject of DEXs, it mentioned the information “implies your complete crypto pie is being reduce massively.”

“General DeFi TVL is now lower than 1/4 final yr’s peak!” the submit summarized alongside extra explanatory charts.

“Even DEXes which might be anticipated to realize essentially the most, have solely seen volumes rise to Jul/Aug ranges, even with all of the emergency token/stables/chain swapping that wanted to be achieved post-FTX.”

DEX volumes chart. Supply: QCP Capital

The views and opinions expressed listed here are solely these of the creator and don’t essentially mirror the views of Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes danger, you must conduct your individual analysis when making a choice.

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